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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 10

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(1:32) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.50 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 10, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model