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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 23

Denver Broncos 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:31) 8-B.McManus 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.60 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model