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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 30

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (31-J.Simmons), Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.45 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 40, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model