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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 48

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Denver Broncos 24

What Actually Happened

(7:18) 4-J.Berry punts 32 yards to DEN 16, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 11-R.Cracraft.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.76 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 48, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP