Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 88

Denver Broncos 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 3-C.Wadman punts 51 yards to PIT 37, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-R.Switzer MUFFS catch, touched at PIT 37, and recovers at PIT 37. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 37 for no gain (27-B.Langley).

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.84 EP
59% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model