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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 2

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(:03) 78-A.Villanueva reported in as eligible. (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell pass short right to 78-A.Villanueva for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.96 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 2, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +2.96 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth +0.00 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model