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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 23

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(6:34) 9-C.Boswell 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.19 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 23, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 33, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP