4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 13 at the 58

Denver Broncos 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:57) 3-C.Wadman punts 37 yards to PIT 21, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.17 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model