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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 29

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(4:32) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. Penalty on LV-23-N.Nelson, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.67 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 29, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 39, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT +0.57 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model