Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 62

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Baltimore Ravens 27

What Actually Happened

(6:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 33 for -5 yards (99-M.Judon). FUMBLES (99-M.Judon) [99-M.Judon], RECOVERED by BAL-55-T.Suggs at LV 43. 55-T.Suggs for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Suggs' 3rd career touchdown.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.27 EP
65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 62, worth -3.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.61 EP