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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 23

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(2:38) (Field Goal formation) 8-D.Carlson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.18 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 23, worth -1.83 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +0.71 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 33, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -1.27 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model