Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 59

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Baltimore Ravens 13

(5:55) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend punts 38 yards to BAL 21, Center-47-T.Sieg. 27-C.Jones pushed ob at BAL 30 for 9 yards (17-D.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.73 EP
61% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 59, worth -3.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model