4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 4

New York Jets 13 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(1:56) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass incomplete short right to 10-J.Kearse (30-J.McCourty) [91-D.Wise].

The Three Options

GO +2.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.80 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 4, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model