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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 84

New England Patriots 27 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(5:23) 6-R.Allen punts 46 yards to NYJ 38, Center-49-J.Cardona. 19-A.Roberts ran ob at NYJ 39 for 1 yard.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.76 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 84, worth -4.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 42, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model