Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 71

New York Jets 13 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to NE 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-J.Edelman to NE 41 for 17 yards (46-N.Hewitt). PENALTY on NE-22-O.Melifonwu, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 71, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model