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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 20

New York Jets 10 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(4:04) 2-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.15 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 20, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model