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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 11

New England Patriots 10 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 68-L.Waddle reported in as eligible. 84-C.Patterson up the middle to NYJ 9 for 2 yards (48-J.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO +3.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.22 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model