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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 90

New England Patriots 10 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(:58) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to NYJ 43, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth -0.11 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 90, worth -5.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.18 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 47, worth -2.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model