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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 16

New England Patriots 7 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 3-S.Gostkowski 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.98 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 16, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 26, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model