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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 42

New York Jets 7 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 4-L.Edwards punts 32 yards to NE 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-51-B.Copeland.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.52 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 42, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP