4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 20

Green Bay Packers 14 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(2:25) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.13 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 20, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP