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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 7

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(4:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 14-S.Diggs (93-R.Gilbert).

The Three Options

GO +2.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.60 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 7, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.18 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.41 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model