Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 71

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Green Bay Packers 14

(10:07) 6-M.Wile punts 59 yards to GB 12, Center-47-K.McDermott. 38-T.Williams to GB 35 for 23 yards (40-K.Brothers).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
58% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model