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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 41

Green Bay Packers 14 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(3:04) 6-J.Scott punts 31 yards to MIN 10, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-93-R.Gilbert.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.36 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 41, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.21 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP