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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 30

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 5-D.Bailey 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.15 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP