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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 71

Green Bay Packers 14 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(9:06) 6-J.Scott punts 54 yards to MIN 17, Center-43-H.Bradley. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 17 for no gain (11-T.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.65 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 71, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 29, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model