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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 30

Atlanta Falcons 10 – New Orleans Saints 31

What Actually Happened

(4:10) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 18-C.Ridley to NO 3 for 27 yards (23-M.Lattimore) [56-D.Davis]. FUMBLES (23-M.Lattimore), RECOVERED by NO-25-E.Apple at NO 0. 25-E.Apple to NO 2 for 2 yards (14-J.Hardy). Pass 19, YAC 8

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.24 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 40, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.82 EP