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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 51

Atlanta Falcons 10 – New Orleans Saints 31

What Actually Happened

(6:22) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 11-J.Jones to NO 30 for 21 yards (43-M.Williams) [98-S.Rankins]. Pass 21, YAC 0

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.50 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 51, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.93 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.39 EP