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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 2

Atlanta Falcons 3 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 18-C.Ridley for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.32 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 2, worth +1.07 EP
KICK +2.32 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.29 EP
PUNT +0.56 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model