4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 82

Atlanta Falcons 3 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(9:25) 5-M.Bosher punts 52 yards to NO 30, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 41-A.Kamara. ATL S 36 K.Ishmael injured his knee on the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.69 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 82, worth -4.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 40, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP