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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 52

Atlanta Falcons 3 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(12:53) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short left to 18-C.Ridley (47-A.Anzalone).

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.81 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 52, worth -3.05 EP
KICK -1.71 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 15, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model