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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 51

Atlanta Falcons 3 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(1:53) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan scrambles right end ran ob at NO 44 for 7 yards (20-K.Crawley).

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.64 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 51, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model