Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 79

Atlanta Falcons 3 – New Orleans Saints 10

(7:39) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to NO 35, Center-47-J.Harris. 41-A.Kamara to NO 42 for 7 yards (85-E.Saubert).

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.67 EP
67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 79, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model