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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 12

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:26) (Field Goal formation) 4-P.Dawson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.42 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model