Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 19 at the 83

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

(8:24) 5-D.Jones punts 53 yards to ARI 30, Center-47-M.Windt. 13-C.Kirk to LAC 44 for 26 yards (42-U.Nwosu).

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.25 EP
71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 83, worth -4.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model