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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 13

Los Angeles Chargers 42 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(3:28) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.27 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 13, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 23, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model