Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 71

Los Angeles Chargers 42 – Arizona Cardinals 10

(12:04) 5-D.Jones punts 52 yards to ARI 19, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-51-K.Emanuel.

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.49 EP
64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 71, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model