Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 82

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 42

(13:06) 2-A.Lee punts 52 yards to LAC 30, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 20-D.King.

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +2.04 EP
74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model