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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 45

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 21

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 2-A.Lee punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.12 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP