Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 20 at the 76

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

(12:07) 2-A.Lee punts 60 yards to LAC 16, Center-46-A.Brewer. 20-D.King to LAC 39 for 23 yards (29-C.Edmonds).

The Three Options

GO -3.11 EP

22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.84 EP
78% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model