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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 15 at the 65

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(11:08) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to NYG 21, Center-89-G.Sanborn. 15-Q.Henderson to NYG 26 for 5 yards (41-K.Minter).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.69 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 65, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 23, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model