4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 46

New York Giants 38 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 35

What Actually Happened

(:31) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +1.11 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 46, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.84 EP