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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 79

New York Giants 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:25) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to TB 36, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.10 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 36, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model