4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 15

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(6:02) 1-C.Parkey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.96 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 15, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model