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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 18

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(11:51) 5-D.Bailey 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.37 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 18, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 28, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model