4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 15 at the 78

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 11

What Actually Happened

(4:59) 6-M.Wile punts 53 yards to CHI 25, Center-47-K.McDermott. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 36 for 11 yards (42-B.Gedeon).

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.72 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 78, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 35, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model