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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 67

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 6-M.Wile punts 46 yards to CHI 21, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 67, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 25, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP