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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 68

Kansas City Chiefs 44 – Los Angeles Rams 47

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 2-D.Colquitt punts 52 yards to LA 16, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 68, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 26, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP