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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 15

Los Angeles Rams 30 – Kansas City Chiefs 30

What Actually Happened

(2:29) 4-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.15 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 15, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP