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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 2

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Los Angeles Rams 16

What Actually Happened

(8:09) 7-H.Butker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +3.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.48 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 2, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.71 EP